I am going to be honest with everyone...the Open Championship if my favorite tournament of the year. Links golf, bad weather, waking up to golf on TV, the history of the game - to me, there is nothing better. The Masters is great because it symbolizes the start of spring and it has the tradition behind it, but to me, it doesn't get any better than the Open.
Just like I have down for other majors, I will be breaking down my predictions into a few categories. Also like the other majors, I will probably be completely wrong in these, and not even mention the eventual champion (which has happened twice this year).
The Open Championship has delivered three straight champions over the age of 40, with two players over the age of 50 challenging in the years prior to that. That streak will end sooner rather than later, but until it does, I will only pick players over the age of 40 in my final team. That being said, there has to be some kind of form entering the tournament. I also take into consideration a player's history with links golf, though Phil Mickelson last year proved past history is not an indicator of future success. Also, my dark horse and sleeper picks do not have to follow my over 40 rule.
Ready to laugh at me? Let's do it!
Dark Horse:
Ryo Ishikawa - This is probably a matter of my heart speaking before my head, but seeing Ishikawa win two weeks ago in Japan gave me hope that Ishikawa is finally ready to break out and become that player we thought he would be. This is Ishikawa's first PGA Tour start since the Travelers Championship, and his first major of the season. He could miss the cut, or he could contend - it really depends on the state of his game and how quickly he can adapt to Open style play.
Sleeper:
Justin Rose - If I didn't have a rule of only picking players over 40 to win the Open, Rose would have been my choice. Winner on the PGA Tour in his last start there, and won the Scotland Open last week. Rose is the hottest golfer entering the tournament. The only question mark is his history in the tournament, as he hasn't notched a top 10 in the Open Championship since he was a 17 year old amateur.
Keep An Eye On:
Tom Watson - Next year will be his last Open Championship...unless he finds a way to contend once again. Watson seems to think his game is well suited for Hoylake, and I'm not going to argue with a man who just made the cut on the PGA Tour at the age of 64. I don't think he's going to turn back the clock again like he did in 2009, but if the weather picks up a bit, you never know where Watson will end up on the leaderboard.
Alright, with those out of the way, here are my top 5 for the 2014 Open Championship:
5) Ernie Els - Only play whose recent form doesn't matter when the Open Championship comes around. While he had a pretty rough week in Scotland, he was able to fire a final round 66, proving he's still capable of shooting low rounds. He only has one top 10 this season, but did finish T19 at the Memorial and he made the cut at the US Open.
4) Angel Cabrera - 44 years old and coming off a win in the states. His Open Championship record has been incredibly spotty - he missed the cut eight times, but finished tied for 11th last year, and he finished in the top 10 in 2006, which happened to be played at this very golf course.
3) Thongchai Jaidee - Having one of the best seasons of his long career, notching a win and two other top 10 finishes in his last five starts on the European Tour. The only thing that appears to be missing from his impressive resume is major success - he has zero top 10's in majors throughout his career. I think that changes this week.
Runner Up:
Jim Furyk - Zero missed cuts this season, with two runner up finishes and a T12 at the US Open. Went with captain Tom Watson on a scouting trip to the site of this years Ryder Cup, which he is all but assured a spot on at this point. Finished forth at Hoylake in 2006.
Champion:
Thomas Bjorn - I had him as my Open Champion at the beginning of the year and I am not wavering now, despite two lackluster performances on the European Tour and an injury that kept him out of the US Open. Four top 10's in Open Championships, including two runner up finishes. Also had a top 10 in the Masters this year. Bjorn reminds me so much of Darren Clarke, who won the Open Championship unexpectedly in 2011.
Champion: Thomas Bjorn
Winning Score: -5
Winning Margin: One Stroke
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