It is that time again - time to pretend like I know what I'm talking about and break down the field for the final major of the 2014 PGA Tour season. Ah, it seems like just yesterday I was wrongfully predicting the Masters, and here we are four short months and three not-so-good majors later, and we're almost at the end of the season. I'm getting a little teary eyed.
My process for predicting this one is simple - the first three majors were won by players who already won a major championship. Therefore, I predict that it will be a perfect 4-for-4 and the trend continues. Also, each of those majors were won by someone in their 20's, but I was not ready to break the field down that much, so I just went with players younger than 40.
Players To Watch (That Don't Fit That Category):
Sergio Garcia - Two runner up finishes in two weeks in a season where Sergio has played incredibly well. I really like his chances to win this week, but I have to stick with my formula. Nevertheless, this may be his best opportunity to finally win a major.
Rickie Fowler - I honestly can't imagine a player posting four top 5 finishes in four majors during a PGA Tour season without winning one of them, and since I don't think Fowler is going to win, then I don't think he's going to repeat his success. It would be a heck of a story if he did, though.
Hideki Matsuyama - Been quiet since his win at the Memorial, but that doesn't mean he's been bad. Made the cut in both the US and Open Championships, and finished a shot out of a top 10 in Ohio last week. The PGA Championship produces plenty of champions that perhaps fly under the radar, and Matsuyama would fit that category. Played in his first PGA Championship last year, where he finished T19.
Tom Watson - The last time a golf tournament was played at Valhalla, it was won by Tom Watson (2011 Senior PGA). Last time the PGA Championship was played here, in 2000, Watson finished in the top 10 at the age of 49. This is most likely Captain Watson's final PGA Championship, the one that prevented him from completing the career grand slam, and while I don't expect him to win, I do expect he puts on one last show.
Contenders:
5) Adam Scott - I don't think Adam Scott is happy just letting his number one ranking slip by the wayside. If anything, I expect Rory McIlroy's recent dominance to motivate Scott to get better. He is a man, I feel, truly enjoyed being the best in the world, and it's not like Scott handed Rory the crown - Rory took it from him. Would be be a shock to see Scott winning the PGA Championship and taking his top ranking back?
4) Geoff Ogilvy - It would be a heck of a shock if Ogilvy were to walk out as the PGA Champion, but shocks tend to be produced at this major. Ogilvy returned to the winner's circle last week at the alternate field event in Reno, and sometimes those are the types of things that motivate someone to return to the form they once had. At 37, Ogilvy is far from done, and could use the PGA Championship to show that.
3) Bubba Watson - Has not looked comfortable on the golf course since his Master's win, but Bubba was never the kind of guy who could play well at the US Open or Open Championships - he loves to bomb it and take a bunch of risks. That's exactly the kind of strategy that could pay off at the PGA Championship. Valhalla will yield plenty of birdies, and that plays into Bubba's wheelhouse.
2) Rory McIlroy - Rory is the prohibitive favorite, and it's dumb to bet against him, but no one has won the Open Championship and the PGA Championship back to back since Tiger did it in 2006. If Rory truly is the "next Tiger Woods", then this would be the perfect way to prove that, but I just think it's too much pressure for anyone. If you predict Rory to win, then that means you're predicting historical level stuff, and I just can't do that.
Winner:
Justin Rose - It's like we forgot about him. Two wins leading up to the Open Championship, and a T4 finish last week in Ohio. Rose has had a pretty phenomenal season considering he started it coming off an injury, but his season has been overshadowed by Rory, Sergio, Rickie, and the struggles of Tiger and Phil. Not a lot of people are going to be betting on Rose this week, which makes it the perfect opportunity for him to grab major number 2.
Champion: Justin Rose
Winning Score: -12
Winning Margin: 2 strokes
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