The most anticipated US Open in a long time is finally upon us as the players descend upon Chambers Bay in the Pacific Northwest for the second major of the year. Chambers Bay, in comparison to other golf courses around the world, is brand new, and this will be the first time most of these players will be seeing this course.
The course is officially listed at a record 7,900 yards, but there is no way they will be playing from the tips all week long. Most of these holes will fluctuate in length throughout the week. The bookend holes will play as both a par 4 and a par 5 at various points throughout the week. With how baked out as this course is, there will be a ton of roll in the fairway, meaning the smaller hitters will still be able to get the ball out there a decent way. This won't be like a typical US Open, in that driving accuracy isn't going to sink somebody. It's the short game that will be tested, as the greens have a ton of slope and will run off into the back of greens and into bunkers.
Before I get into who will win the tournament, I'm going to list a few players I will be watching and some storylines that will be prevalent.
Jordan Spieth - Spieth is going for the calendar year grand slam, something that has not been done since Bobby Jones in 1930. With so many players who can win this tournament, I had to leave someone out of my list, and Spieth got cut. This isn't to say Spieth CAN'T win - in fact, he has to be among the favorites, but I don't see it happening. The list of players who have won the US Open after winning the Masters is incredibly short - in fact, that number is five (Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Craig Wood, and Ben Hogan, who did it twice.) You're asking me to predict something historic, and I'm not willing to do that.
Tiger Woods - I predicted that he would make the cut at The Masters, and he did. I'm not willing to make that same prediction at the US Open. There are just too many places to get in trouble at Chambers Bay, and bad shots can be punished with a double or worse. Tiger can turn it on in majors, but that's usually at Augusta or another golf course that he has had success on. This is too new to him, and I don't expect to see him on Saturday.
Martin Kaymer - Has there ever been a defending champion that has been talked about less than Kaymer? It's with good reason, however - Kaymer has not followed up on that success he experienced last season. A victory by Kaymer would make him the first player since Curtis Strange in 1988-89 to defend the US Open. I don't see it happening, but Kaymer has shocked us before.
Ok, with that out of the way, I will go into my list of contenders. I'll give you one dark horse player, four contenders, and the ultimate champion.
Dark Horse:
Wen-Chong Liang - I've been teasing it all week, and here I am, putting my words where my mouth is (?). I believe Chambers Bay will be good for the Asian players, as most of them had a weeks worth of practice at the grounds. The Seattle area will be a lot easier to get acclimated to, both in terms of the culture of the area and the time zone differences. The course is baked out, which will allow for a lot of roll, and the rough is not as thick as it could be. The course sets up a bit like Whistling Straits, where Liang finished T8 in 2010. He is also peaking, as he won his most previous start. Experience in majors, coupled with form and the set up of the golf course gives me the inclination that Liang will be one of those "unknown" players who crash the party by weeks end.
Contenders:
5) Byeong-Hun An - Many will argue that he is as unknown as Liang and should be considered a dark horse, but I actually think An could be in this to win it. An won the BMW Championship, the flagship on the European Tour, going away. He has been having a great season, seemingly notching top 10s every week, and has experience in majors already - former US Amateur that played in a US Open and finished in the top 25 at the Open Championship. This will be the world's introduction to An, who will be an excellent player going forward.
4) Phil Mickelson - Yes, I'm getting wrapped up in it again, but this is less about sentimental value than it is current form. Lefty has finished T2 in his last two majors, which were pretty much warm ups for this event. The fairways are wider, so Phil doesn't have to worry about getting into too much trouble. He will likely be using less than driver on most holes and let the ball run out. His short game is still superb. It would be a little bit of a surprise if he won, but don't completely count him out.
3) Justin Rose - He's peaking, and he's entering the tournament where he has had the most success. This course couldn't be any more different than Merion, but Rose's game translates to almost any course. He is another player who seems to show up at majors despite his form, but his form is good right now. Excellent around the green.
2) Rory McIlroy - People are taking too much stock in his two missed cuts on the European Tour. This was a player that was mentally and physically gassed. He's a big hitter, so he will shorten these holes considerably. More than that, he's the best player in the world, and it doesn't really matter what course he is playing on. He has won on both links style and US Open style courses. He's the man to beat, but I know who is going to beat him.
Champion:
Hideki Matsuyama - Yes, I picked Matsuyama at Pinehurst and that didn't pan out, but I feel like everything is setting up for Matsuyama to win this week. Great ball striker that will stay out of trouble. Notched a whopping ten top 10s this season, including at The Masters, where he didn't have the greatest success going in. No expectations for him going in means he's under the radar, and he has seen this course the same amount of times as everyone else, so his inexperience is cancelled out. His weakness is his putting, which will be neutralized this week. Matsuyama wins Japan's first major this week.
Winner: Hideki Matsuyama
Winning Score: -5
Margin Of Victory: One Stroke
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