Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Predicting the US Women's Open (Poorly)

(Personal Note: I will be at Philly Comic Con this weekend, so I will be unable to put up a News Grab-Bag on Friday. Sorry guys!)

As the men leave town, it is now time for the women to take center stage at Pinehurst No. 2 for the US Women's Open. You already know the course and the players, so I don't need to break all that down for you. Instead, I'm going to just predict the players I think will have a chance to win and, ultimately, my champion. Prior to that, however, I think it's important to narrow down the field, and to do that, I have to eliminate some players. So, below, are a grouping of players that I think have no shot to win the US Open.

Amateurs:
- Only one amateur has ever won the US Women's Open, and that was Catherine Lacoste in 1967. While Jenny Chausiriporn almost knocked off Se Ri Pak in 1998, I don't see this trend breaking anytime soon. As much as Lucy Li is an incredible story, no amateur is going to hoist the trophy at the end of the week.
Notables Eliminated: Lucy Li, Emma Talley, Minjee Lee.

Anyone Looking For Their First Tour Victory:
- Yes, I know. There have been many players who have banked the US Open for their first victory, going back as early as 2011 when So Yeon Ryu did it. On any other golf course, I would consider it a possibility, but not at Pinehurst. This course is going to require everything you have mentally and physically, and there are going to be a lot of players who are in it on Sunday. You need to have the knowledge of what it is like to close the deal if you're going to conquer this course. If you haven't won yet, I don't see you being able to win at Pinehurst.
Notables Eliminated: Ha Na Jang, Chella Choi, Jodi Ewert Shadoff, Caroline Hedwall, Charley Hull, Ariya Jutanugarn

Anyone Outside The Top 60:
- This has become a top heavy Tour, with the best players playing at the highest level and suffocating the field every time they tee it up. No one outside the top 60 in the world has won this year. If you're going to win on the LPGA Tour, you're going to be at the very top of your game. The winner of the US Women's Open is going to come from the top 25 in the world, but I don't want to count out some of the players just outside that. Top 60 seems reasonable.
Notables Eliminated: Brittany Lincicome, Eun-Hee Ji, Brittany Lang

If you are a fan of any of the players that fit the above categories, congratulations! I just doomed them to winning the US Women's Open (based on my history of predicting things). With that out of the way, here are my contenders for the second major of the year:

(SLEEPER) Shanshan Feng - A very savvy player with a major to her resume. Has the mental strength to not let the course bother her. Entering on the back of a solid year while also under the radar, allowing her to avoid the distractions.

(5) So Yeon Ryu - It was between her and Lydia Ko in this spot, and I just don't see Ko breaking the record for youngest US Open champion. Ryu has struggled closing the deal, but should still be part of the conversation, as her game is perfect for Pinehurst.

(4) Lexi Thompson - The waste areas at Pinehurst aren't as penalizing as a typical Open set-up, so hitting shots off line won't doom her. The question is going to be her putting. Her great iron play and approach shots won't mean much on greens where you can not attack pins. If she is putting well, she will be part of the conversation on Sunday.

(3) Michelle Wie - I do not like all the media surrounding her entering this week, but her game is still at the highest level it's ever been in her career. Again, like Lexi, she won't be penalized for hitting shots off line. Her putting has massively improved this season.

(2) Stacy Lewis - Best player in the field, but the US Open set up has never been her strong suit. Only top 10 finish came all the way back in 2008. Either she isn't a US Open style of player, or her game has now hit a point where she can contend anywhere at any time. I have learned to never count her out, but she could easily win or miss the cut. It's hard to tell.

(1) Inbee Park - Defending champion entering off the heels of a victory. Has proven her worth on Open set-ups. Is mentally tough enough to handle bogies, which will occur. Could honestly pull a Kaymer and run away with this tournament if her putting is on.

Champion: Inbee Park
Winning Score: +2
Winning Margin: 3 strokes

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