Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Predicting The Evian Championship (Poorly)

While the PGA Tour ends their season this week, the LPGA still has several high quality events on their schedule, including the final major of the season, the Evian Championship. It is the second major that takes place outside of the United States, with the ladies of the LPGA Tour descending on France to compete for one of the richest purses in the sport. This is the second year the event is a major, but prior to that is played as a pseudo-major, as all the top players would circle this event as a much win based on the purse.

In the first part of the year, the LPGA season was pretty predictable, with the top names in the world all picking up victories and battling for supremacy. Since Mo Martin's victory at the Women's British Open, however, the season as been anything but predictable, with Mirim Lee and Austin Ernst picking up their first LPGA victories, and So Yeon Ryu winning for the first time since 2012. Now, we head to France for what may be the most wide open major of the year, with several players all coming in feeling as if they have a chance to win.

I have done these predictions a variety of different ways. I have split them up into groups, I have eliminated players I don't think have a chance, I have set aside my criteria for success, and yet none of that seems to do any good as I eventually end up failing anyway. So, instead of doing any sort of gimmicks, I'm just going to give you my top 10 players that I think can win the Evian Championship.

10) Anna Nordqvist - European players have typically performed well at this event, and Norqvist has had the kind of season that is usually rewarded by winning a major. Norqvist has two victories and seven top 10's this season, and has performed well in the last two majors. She has set herself up as the second best player in Europe, behind another Scandinavian that is also on this list.

9) Sakura Yokomine - Veteran JLPGA member is skipping the JLPGA major this week to compete here, which may be a signal that she's looking for a change of scenery. She won four times on that tour last year, but hasn't won this season. Yokomine did record a top 10 as the Women's US Open, and was the star of the Japanese International Crown team that made it much further than many suspected. A player with that talent feeds off great competitive environments, and will be looking for a win, perhaps, to secure an LPGA card.

8) Lexi Thompson - Seven top 10's this season is a little misleading, as most of her success was early. Still, she's the kind of player you don't discount in a major, and if on this list particularly because of her major success at the Kraft Nabisco earlier this year. Also shouldn't be penalized much for wayward shots, which is crucial to her game.

7) Hyo Joo Kim - Leader of the KLPGA money list by a wide margin. Should be the next great Korean star to break through and have success on the LPGA Tour, and could do so the same way many of her counterparts have - by winning a major. Kim is deadly accurate and has nerves of steel, so she won't be rattled by the situation she's in.

6) So Yeon Ryu - Mixed bag with Ryu, as she won a few weeks ago to finally get the monkey off the back, but let a golden opportunity slip away on Sunday two weeks ago. Regardless, Ryu has now become a fixture on leaderboards and should contend all the way up to Sunday. Whether she cashes in and wins her second major remains to be seen.

5) Azahara Munoz - Eight top 10's this season symbolizes a huge turn around for Munoz, who struggled throughout 2013. Munoz could have easily won a few times this season, had she not been outplayed on Sunday by several different competitors. With this event in Europe, Munoz should have extra motivation.

4) Stacy Lewis - This is a major that I'm not sure really suits her, but you never count Stacy Lewis out of any event. Has only one top 10 in her last five events, which means, despite her brilliant season up until now, her number one ranking and her Player Of The Year Award are both in jeopardy if she does not perform well down the stretch.

3) Inbee Park - Has finished 3-1-2-4 in her last four events, with her victory being at the LPGA Championship. Former winner of this event. Only reaches number three because I have more confidence in the top two players, but an Inbee Park victory would not be surprising to me.

2) Suzann Pettersen - Defending champion is finally 100% healthy and rolling in with confidence. May be the most under the radar player in the top 5, seeing as she's the only one of that group that has lost rankings points this season. Positive environment and course familiarity should give Pettersen a real shot to repeat.

1) Lydia Ko - Has followed up good tournaments with bad ones, and vice versa all season. Her most recent event was the Canadian Open, where she finished T55, so a good tournament should be upcoming. Poised and confidence well beyond her years. Given how well she has played this year, she should be the next in line to win a major.

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